Atalanta U19 2–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19: Result & Stats

Atalanta U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb U19

E. Gyabuaa 61'

A. Cortinovis 58'

11/26/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atalanta U1953%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Zagreb U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.06

Atalanta U19

1.73

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.06

Atalanta U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

0.91

1.22

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Atalanta U19

1.56

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Atalanta U19

1.22

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atalanta U19 or draw

77%

Atalanta U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

76%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

47%

Winning margin

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

29%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

82%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

52%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

25%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U19 attack 1.56 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atalanta U19 scores more

53%

level

24%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

23%

Atalanta U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atalanta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Traore

44'

B. Karrica

58'

A. Cortinovis↳ A. Traoré

59'

E. Julardžija← N. Janković

61'

E. Gyabuaa↳ N. Cambiaghi

65'

J. Jurčec← B. Karrica

72'

A. Marin

75'

N. Cambiaghi

79'

D. Ghislandi← N. Cambiaghi

79'

S. Finardi← A. Cortinovis

82'

E. Julardzija

90'

J. Da Riva

90'

L. Sipos

90+2'

N. Ghisleni← R. Piccoli

Atalanta

Dinamo

1

5

2

3

4

6

10

8

▼

Janković

7

Marin

9

Šipoš

11

▼

1

6

3

5

2

8

⚽

Gyabuaa

4

Riva

10

⚽

▼

Cortinovi

9

▼

Piccoli

11

A

▼

Cambiaghi

7

A

Traoré

Manager: M. Brambilla

79'▲D. Ghislandi←▼N. Cambiaghi

79'▲S. Finardi←▼A. Cortinovis

90+2'▲N. Ghisleni←▼R. Piccoli

Atalanta U19 substitutes

14Ghislandi16Finardi17Ghisleni12Dajcar15Milani18Panada13Ruggeri

Manager: I. Jovičević

59'▲E. Julardžija←▼N. Janković

65'▲J. Jurčec←▼B. Karrica

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

17Julardžija18Jurčec12Krkalic13Vukasović15Nikolić16Kočar14Radonja

UEFA Youth League: Atalanta U19 2–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19

Atalanta U19 beat Dinamo Zagreb U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 26, 2019.

Goals: A. Cortinovis (58'), E. Gyabuaa (61').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1 in Zingonia Ciserano.

Atalanta U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Atalanta U19 2–0 Dinamo Zagreb U19