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Dinamo Zagreb II vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
CANC
00:00
Sibenik
Sibenik
4/19/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 24Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II39%
×Draw29%
Sibenik32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.19
Sibenik
1.04

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
1.52
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II
0.80
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw
68%
Dinamo Zagreb II or Sibenik
71%
Draw or Sibenik
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
17%
Sibenik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
12%
Sibenik 1+ goals
65%
Sibenik 2+ goals
28%
Sibenik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
55%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.52 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
39%
level
29%
Sibenik scores more
32%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Zagreb II face Sibenik (First NL)

First NL returns with Dinamo Zagreb II hosting Sibenik. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Zagreb II host Sibenik at Stadion Maksimir.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.