Dinamo Zagreb II 0–1 Sibenik: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

L. Celić 81'

11/17/2018

First NL · Round 13Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb II39%

×Draw29%

Sibenik32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb IIExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.04

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.19

Sibenik

1.04

Dinamo Zagreb II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

1.52

creates per match

1.27

0.80

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.52

Sibenik

1.27

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.80

Sibenik

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb II ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb II or draw

68%

Dinamo Zagreb II or Sibenik

71%

Draw or Sibenik

61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

17%

Sibenik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

12%

Sibenik 1+ goals

65%

Sibenik 2+ goals

28%

Sibenik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

55%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 1.52 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

39%

level

29%

Sibenik scores more

32%

Dinamo Zagreb II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

V. Kendeš← D. Kukec

67'

Kim Gyu-Hyeong← I. Bagarić

75'

B. Barišić← I. Antunović

80'

T. Knežević← M. Gjira

81'

D. Kapitanović← E. Çekiçi

81'

L. Celić

89'

L. Fuštin← P. Ampem

Dinamo

Sibenik

1

4

3

18

11

10

▼

Kukec

16

Maleš

21

⚽

Celić

14

▼

Ampem

28

Roca

9

▼

Antunović

7

▼

1

5

2

4

▼

Gjira

3

Gogić

6

Čuić

10

▼

8

11

9

Manager: I. Jovičević

67'▲Kim Gyu-Hyeong←▼I. Bagarić

80'▲T. Knežević←▼M. Gjira

81'▲D. Kapitanović←▼E. Çekiçi

Dinamo Zagreb II substitutes

17Gyu-Hyeong16Knežević18Kapitanović12Bašić14Jelenić15Stanić13Hrvoj

Manager: B. Perković

63'▲V. Kendeš←▼D. Kukec

75'▲B. Barišić←▼I. Antunović

89'▲L. Fuštin←▼P. Ampem

Sibenik substitutes

7Kendeš15Barišić8Fuštin2Pecolaj20Aliyu24Stanić95Rogić