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Dinamo Vladivostok vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
10/11/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 13Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok36%
×Draw29%
Rodina Moskva II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.10
Rodina Moskva II
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.00
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.93
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
65%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Rodina Moskva II
71%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
14%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
10%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
66%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
29%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
51%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
36%
level
29%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
35%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Dinamo Vladivostok 0–2 Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Dinamo Vladivostok 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.