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Dinamo Vladivostok vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
5/29/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok31%
×Draw28%
Rodina Moskva II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.07
Rodina Moskva II
1.27

Rodina Moskva II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
59%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Rodina Moskva II
72%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
69%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
12%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
9%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
72%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
36%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
43%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.07

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
31%
level
28%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
41%

Rodina Moskva II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vladivostok vs Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Dinamo Vladivostok 4-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.