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Dinamo Tirana vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
10/9/20221st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Tirana55%
×Draw26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.50
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.77

Dinamo Tirana creates 95% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.53
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
0.69
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
81%
Dinamo Tirana or Besëlidhja Lezhë
74%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
28%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
19%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
54%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
18%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
74%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.53 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Dinamo Tirana defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
55%
level
26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
19%

Dinamo Tirana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tirana vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Dinamo Tirana beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 4-0 in 1st Division on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi in Tirana.