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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Dinamo Tirana — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
3/4/20231st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë40%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Tirana34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.23

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Dinamo Tirana
1.17

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Dinamo Tirana
1.14

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
66%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Dinamo Tirana
74%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
60%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
75%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
40%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
54%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.17 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
40%
level
26%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
34%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 0–4 Dinamo Tirana

Dinamo Tirana beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 4-0 in 1st Division on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.