Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 Shukura: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tbilisi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shukura

Z. Marušić 64'

L. Ingorokva 83' (pen)

6/9/2021

Erovnuli Liga · Round 8Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi61%

×Draw22%

Shukura17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TbilisiExpected goals in this matchShukura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.87

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.90

Shukura

0.87

Dinamo Tbilisi creates 118% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 43 away

1.88

creates per match

0.84

0.90

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.88

Shukura

0.84

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi

0.90

Shukura

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi ↓

Shukura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi or draw

83%

Dinamo Tbilisi or Shukura

78%

Draw or Shukura

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+

37%

Shukura wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals

85%

Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals

56%

Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals

29%

Shukura 1+ goals

58%

Shukura 2+ goals

22%

Shukura 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)

79%

Shukura (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.88 + Shukura defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Shukura attack 0.84 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more

61%

level

22%

Shukura scores more

17%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. J. de

32'

Z. Museliani

46'

M. Radin← L. Gagnidze

55'

L. Khmaladze← C. Tanor

64'

Z. Marušić

65'

T. Morchiladze← L. Kharabadze

72'

G. Gogitidze← M. Partenadze

72'

L. Kvaratskhelia← Z. Museliani

77'

F. Sporkslede

80'

B. Verulidze← L. Ingorokva

83'

L. IngorokvaPenalty

86'

A. Mekvabishvili← Víctor Mongil

86'

D. Zurabiani← G. Kutsia

87'

T. Akhvlediani← G. Gabedava

90+2'

B. Verulidze

Dinamo

Shukura

1

Tebidze

23

Rekhviash

2

▼

26

5

22

33

21

14

⚽

▼

Ingorokva

20

▼

Tanor

7

▼

Museliani

30

Kvaskhvad

3

▼

22

5

19

12

▼

Kharabadz

15

Papava

21

▼

Kutsia

34

▼

Gagnidze

9

▼

Gabedava

32

⚽

Marušić

Manager: K. Tskhadadze

46'▲M. Radin←▼L. Gagnidze

65'▲T. Morchiladze←▼L. Kharabadze

86'▲A. Mekvabishvili←▼Víctor Mongil

86'▲D. Zurabiani←▼G. Kutsia

87'▲T. Akhvlediani←▼G. Gabedava

Dinamo Tbilisi substitutes

8Radin25Morchiladze27Mekvabishvili14Zurabiani17Akhvlediani6Kardava13Migineishvili18Oršula29Lominadze

Manager: G. Shashiashvili

55'▲L. Khmaladze←▼C. Tanor

72'▲G. Gogitidze←▼M. Partenadze

72'▲L. Kvaratskhelia←▼Z. Museliani

80'▲B. Verulidze←▼L. Ingorokva

Shukura substitutes

8Khmaladze6Gogitidze17Kvaratskhelia10Verulidze13Sherozia15Komakhidze31Jintcharadze40Ekvtimishvili

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 Shukura

Dinamo Tbilisi and Shukura drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga on June 9, 2021.

Goals: Z. Marušić (64'), L. Ingorokva (83' pen).

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 Shukura