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Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
3/14/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II45%
×Draw24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.69
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.39

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.73
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.55
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.64

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par
Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw
68%
Dinamo Tbilisi II or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
76%
Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
40%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
58%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.73 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
45%
level
24%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
32%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1 – 1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Dinamo Tbilisi II and Lokomotivi Tbilisi drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia in Tbilisi.