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Dinamo Stavropol vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
11/15/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol58%
×Draw22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.91
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.02

Dinamo Stavropol creates 87% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
80%
Dinamo Stavropol or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
78%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
34%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
57%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
64%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
27%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.91

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
58%
level
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
20%

Dinamo Stavropol at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 1–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Dinamo Stavropol beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.