Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 0–2 Dinamo Stavropol

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dinamo Stavropol

8/31/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II24%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Stavropol55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz IIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.00

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.25

Dinamo Stavropol

2.00

Dinamo Stavropol creates 60% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 92 away

1.12

creates per match

1.22

2.78

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.12

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.78

Dinamo Stavropol

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw

45%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Dinamo Stavropol

78%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

76%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

10%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

71%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

36%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

59%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

30%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

24%

level

22%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

55%

Dinamo Stavropol at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff