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Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm — Super League 2026

Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
Preview
15:00
Xorazm
Xorazm
8/14/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Dinamo Samarkand Stadium
39%
Dinamo Samarqand
model favours
39%27%34%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand39%
×Draw27%
Xorazm34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Xorazm
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Xorazm
1.04

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.29
Xorazm
1.26

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par
Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Xorazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw
66%
Dinamo Samarqand or Xorazm
73%
Draw or Xorazm
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
17%
Xorazm wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
14%
Xorazm 1+ goals
69%
Xorazm 2+ goals
33%
Xorazm 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
53%
Xorazm (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Xorazm defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Xorazm attack 1.04 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more
39%
level
27%
Xorazm scores more
34%

Dinamo Samarqand at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Samarqand
WWWLD
Xorazm
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Samarqand host Xorazm

August 14, 2026: Dinamo Samarqand take on Xorazm in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Samarqand host Xorazm at Dinamo Samarkand Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.