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Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
Preview
15:00
Neftchi
Neftchi
8/3/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Dinamo Samarkand Stadium
Big match
43%
Neftchi
model favours
29%28%43%

Neftchi have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand29%
×Draw28%
Neftchi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Samarqand
1.03
Neftchi
1.30

Neftchi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 61 away

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Neftchi
1.31

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.29
Neftchi
0.79

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw
57%
Dinamo Samarqand or Neftchi
72%
Draw or Neftchi
71%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
11%
Neftchi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
9%
Neftchi 1+ goals
73%
Neftchi 2+ goals
37%
Neftchi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
41%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.03

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more
29%
level
28%
Neftchi scores more
43%

Neftchi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Samarqand sit 14, Neftchi 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Samarqand
WWWLD
Neftchi
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi — Match Preview

Dinamo Samarqand face Neftchi on August 3, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Samarqand host Neftchi at Dinamo Samarkand Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.