Dinamo Samarqand 0–1 Navbahor: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Navbahor

R. Ashurmatov 90+4'

5/11/2022

Super League · Round 8Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand35%

×Draw28%

Navbahor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.24

Dinamo Samarqand

1.18

Navbahor

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 99 away

1.27

creates per match

1.19

1.29

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Navbahor

1.19

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Navbahor

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

62%

Dinamo Samarqand or Navbahor

72%

Draw or Navbahor

65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

14%

Navbahor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

12%

Navbahor 1+ goals

71%

Navbahor 2+ goals

35%

Navbahor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

48%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Navbahor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Navbahor attack 1.19 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

35%

level

28%

Navbahor scores more

38%

Navbahor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

O. Nurmatov

34'

J. Iskanderov

64'

M. Muzaffarov← S. Komilov

64'

T. Ergashev← O. Nurmatov

64'

I. Kenjabaev← E. Grigalashvili

70'

I. Yoldoshev

74'

P. Rogan

79'

B. Ciger

81'

S. Yuldashev← T. Ismoilov

81'

F. Alimov← S. Rashidov

83'

E. Panshanbe← A. Akhmedov

83'

I. Ganikhonov← Z. Marušić

90+1'

J. Jumayev← J. Umarov

90+4'

R. Ashurmatov

Dinamo

Navbahor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Rogan

64'▲M. Muzaffarov←▼S. Komilov

64'▲T. Ergashev←▼O. Nurmatov

81'▲S. Yuldashev←▼T. Ismoilov

81'▲F. Alimov←▼S. Rashidov

90+1'▲J. Jumayev←▼J. Umarov

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

MuzaffarovErgashevYuldashevAlimovJumayevAkhrorovKozimovSharipovOqbutayev

Manager: V. Djalilov

64'▲I. Kenjabaev←▼E. Grigalashvili

83'▲E. Panshanbe←▼A. Akhmedov

83'▲I. Ganikhonov←▼Z. Marušić

Navbahor substitutes

KenjabaevPanshanbeGanikhonovSidorovSobirjonovGolbanMo'ydinovTukhtasinovDavronov

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Navbahor

Navbahor beat Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 in Super League on May 11, 2022.

Goals: R. Ashurmatov (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Samarqand.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Navbahor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Navbahor