Dinamo Pančevo 1–1 Borac Sakule: Result & Stats

Dinamo Pančevo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Borac Sakule

3/5/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo46%

×Draw24%

Borac Sakule30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo PančevoExpected goals in this matchBorac Sakule

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.30

Dinamo Pančevo

1.66

Borac Sakule

1.30

Dinamo Pančevo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 42 away

1.71

creates per match

1.40

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.71

Borac Sakule

1.40

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.21

Borac Sakule

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Borac Sakule →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw

70%

Dinamo Pančevo or Borac Sakule

76%

Draw or Borac Sakule

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

24%

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

23%

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

73%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

37%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

60%

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

46%

level

24%

Borac Sakule scores more

30%

Dinamo Pančevo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff