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Borac Sakule vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
0 – 1
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
10/25/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule51%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Pančevo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.73
Dinamo Pančevo
1.15

Borac Sakule creates 50% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 102 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
75%
Borac Sakule or Dinamo Pančevo
76%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
49%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
82%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
52%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
51%
level
24%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
25%

Borac Sakule at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Borac Sakule 0–1 Dinamo Pančevo

Dinamo Pančevo beat Borac Sakule 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.