Dinamo Pančevo 4–2 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Dinamo Pančevo

FT

4 – 2

Bačka 1901

9/26/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 9Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo52%

×Draw23%

Bačka 190125%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo PančevoExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.23

Dinamo Pančevo

1.85

Bačka 1901

1.23

Dinamo Pančevo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 27 away

1.71

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.71

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.21

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw

75%

Dinamo Pančevo or Bačka 1901

77%

Draw or Bačka 1901

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

29%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

28%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

71%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

35%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

67%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

52%

level

23%

Bačka 1901 scores more

25%

Dinamo Pančevo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff