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Bačka 1901 vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
FT
1 – 2
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
4/14/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bačka 190147%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Pančevo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bačka 1901
1.60
Dinamo Pančevo
1.19

Bačka 1901 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 102 away

creates per match

Bačka 1901
1.61
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Bačka 1901
1.25
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Bačka 1901+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bačka 1901 ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bačka 1901 or draw
72%
Bačka 1901 or Dinamo Pančevo
75%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
53%

Winning margin

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bačka 1901 1+ goals
80%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
47%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
62%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bačka 1901 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bačka 1901 attack 1.61 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Bačka 1901 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bačka 1901 scores more
47%
level
25%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
28%

Bačka 1901 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bačka 1901 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bačka 1901 vs Dinamo Pančevo

Dinamo Pančevo beat Bačka 1901 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Somborske Kapije in Subotica.