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Dinamo Pančevo vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
2 – 2
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
3/11/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo51%
×Draw24%
1. Maj Ruma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
1. Maj Ruma
1.14

Dinamo Pančevo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
75%
Dinamo Pančevo or 1. Maj Ruma
76%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
49%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
27%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
51%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
24%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
68%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
32%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
67%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
51%
level
24%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
25%

Dinamo Pančevo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 2–2 1. Maj Ruma

Dinamo Pančevo and 1. Maj Ruma drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.