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1. Maj Ruma vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
8/20/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 2Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

1. Maj Ruma47%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Pančevo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.43
Dinamo Pančevo
1.01

1. Maj Ruma creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 102 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
73%
1. Maj Ruma or Dinamo Pančevo
73%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
53%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
76%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
42%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
47%
level
27%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
27%

1. Maj Ruma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: 1. Maj Ruma 1–1 Dinamo Pančevo

1. Maj Ruma and Dinamo Pančevo drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Maj Ruma in Ruma.