Dinamo Moscow 1–1 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moscow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Krylya Sovetov

Y. Gladyshev 75'

V. Pisarskiy 29' (pen)

3/1/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsVTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dinamo Moscow50%

×Draw23%

Krylya Sovetov27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.31

Dinamo Moscow

1.86

Krylya Sovetov

1.31

Dinamo Moscow creates 42% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

2.04

creates per match

1.53

1.09

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

2.04

Krylya Sovetov

1.53

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.09

Krylya Sovetov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

73%

Dinamo Moscow or Krylya Sovetov

77%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

28%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

73%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

38%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

65%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.04 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.86

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

50%

level

23%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

27%

Dinamo Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Denis Makarov

28'

Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu

29'

V. PisarskiyPenalty

43'

Nikolay Rasskazov

46'

D. Lesovoy← N. Moumi Ngamaleu

46'

L. Gagnidze← D. Fomin

46'

A. Zuev← A. Ćirković

63'

Dmitri Skopintsev

68'

Y. Gladyshev← D. Makarov

68'

F. Smolov← K. Tyukavin

73'

Glenn Bijl

75'

Y. Gladyshev

78'

V. Shitov← V. Pisarskiy

78'

Y. Gorshkov← B. Garré

84'

Roman Evgenev

85'

V. Grulev← D. Lesovoy

89'

I. Gaponov← A. Rahmanović

89'

M. Vityugov← A. Kovalenko

90+4'

Ivan Lomaev

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DinamoKrylya

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots11

5Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target5

7Off Target4

4Blocked2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov

Dinamo Moscow and Krylya Sovetov drew 1-1 in Cup on March 1, 2023.

Goals: V. Pisarskiy (29' pen), Y. Gladyshev (75').

Dinamo Moscow controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.

Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov