Dinamo Moscow 2–1 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moscow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Moscow

M. Ngamaleu 63'

D. Skopintsev 40'

I. Oblyakov 65'

11/13/2022

Premier League · Round 17VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Dinamo Moscow40%

×Draw27%

CSKA Moscow33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.20

Dinamo Moscow

1.35

CSKA Moscow

1.20

Dinamo Moscow creates 13% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.64

creates per match

1.34

1.06

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.64

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.06

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

67%

Dinamo Moscow or CSKA Moscow

73%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

18%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

15%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

70%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

34%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

55%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.64 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

40%

level

27%

CSKA Moscow scores more

33%

Dinamo Moscow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Ngamaleu

Dinamo Moscow · F

8.0

Match Events

40'

D. Skopintsev↳ D. Fomin

50'

51'

63'

65'

71'

Y. Gladyshev← V. Grulev

72'

Ivan Oblyakov

73'

A. Zabolotny← F. Chalov

75'

K. Tyukavin← F. Smolov

76'

79'

79'

81'

81'

83'

89'

90+4'

S. Parshivlyuk← M. Ngamaleu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoCSKA

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots15

9Corners11

9Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots15

5On Target5

12Off Target7

3Blocked3

15Inside Box15

5Outside Box0

Passing

44%Possession56%

288Total Passes378

187Accurate Passes273

65%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls6

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

3Offsides3