Dinamo Moscow 2–0 Baltika: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moscow

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

8/13/2023

Premier League · Round 4VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dinamo Moscow44%

×Draw27%

Baltika29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.08

Dinamo Moscow

1.38

Baltika

1.08

Dinamo Moscow creates 28% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

1.64

creates per match

1.10

1.06

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.64

Baltika

1.10

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.06

Baltika

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

71%

Dinamo Moscow or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

21%

Baltika wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Baltika 1+ goals

66%

Baltika 2+ goals

29%

Baltika 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

60%

Baltika (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.64 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Baltika attack 1.10 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

44%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

29%

Dinamo Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff