Dinamo Minsk 5–0 Dinamo Brest: Result & Stats

Dinamo Minsk

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Brest

6/28/2025

Premier League · Round 14National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Dinamo Minsk47%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Brest27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MinskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Dinamo Minsk

1.48

Dinamo Brest

1.06

Dinamo Minsk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 126 away

1.75

creates per match

1.37

0.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk

1.75

Dinamo Brest

1.37

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk

0.75

Dinamo Brest

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Dinamo Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw

73%

Dinamo Minsk or Dinamo Brest

74%

Draw or Dinamo Brest

53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals

43%

Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 125 matches

Dinamo Brest away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.75 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Brest attack 1.37 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more

47%

level

26%

Dinamo Brest scores more

27%

Dinamo Minsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff