Dinamo Brest 0–2 Dinamo Minsk: Result & Stats

Dinamo Brest

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Minsk

11/23/2025

Premier League · Round 29Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Dinamo Brest36%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Minsk39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BrestExpected goals in this matchDinamo Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Dinamo Brest

1.33

Dinamo Minsk

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

1.83

creates per match

1.61

1.18

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Dinamo Brest

1.83

Dinamo Minsk

1.61

allows per match

Dinamo Brest

1.18

Dinamo Minsk

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Dinamo Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw

61%

Dinamo Brest or Dinamo Minsk

74%

Draw or Dinamo Minsk

64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

48%

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.83 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.61 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more

36%

level

26%

Dinamo Minsk scores more

39%

Dinamo Minsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff