Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Nizhny Novgorod

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

12/7/2025

Premier League · Round 18Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala49%

×Draw28%

Nizhny Novgorod23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.84

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.37

Nizhny Novgorod

0.84

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 78 away

1.06

creates per match

0.78

0.90

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.06

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.90

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

77%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Nizhny Novgorod

72%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

24%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

16%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

57%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

21%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

68%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

49%

level

28%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

23%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff