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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Nizhny Novgorod — Cup 2019

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
7/30/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 1Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala44%
×Draw26%
Nizhny Novgorod30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.44
Nizhny Novgorod
1.13

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
1.11

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.14
Nizhny Novgorod
1.89

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
70%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Nizhny Novgorod
74%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
21%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
18%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
68%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
31%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
60%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.00 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.11 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
44%
level
26%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
30%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Nizhny Novgorod

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 in Cup on July 30, 2025.

The match was played at Anzhi Arena in Kaspijsk.