Dinamo Makhachkala 3–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

11/13/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala71%

×Draw18%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.77

Dinamo Makhachkala

2.29

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.77

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 197% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

2.16

creates per match

0.78

0.75

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

2.16

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.75

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

89%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

82%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

29%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

48%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

90%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

66%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

54%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

18%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

87%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.29

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

71%

level

18%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

11%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff