Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 0–3 Dinamo Makhachkala

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Dinamo Makhachkala

8/1/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II19%

×Draw21%

Dinamo Makhachkala60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz IIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.03

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.03

Dinamo Makhachkala

2.03

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 97% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

1.12

creates per match

1.28

2.78

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.12

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.28

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.78

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw

40%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Dinamo Makhachkala

79%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

81%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

7%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

64%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

9%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

87%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

60%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

24%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

19%

level

21%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

60%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff