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Dinamo Jug vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Jug
Dinamo Jug
FT
2 – 1
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
11/17/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 15Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Jug62%
×Draw21%
Radnički Svilajnac17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Jug
2.00
Radnički Svilajnac
0.92

Dinamo Jug creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

Dinamo Jug
2.47
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Dinamo Jug
0.47
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Dinamo Jug+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Jug ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Jug or draw
83%
Dinamo Jug or Radnički Svilajnac
79%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Jug wins by 2+
38%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Jug 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Jug 2+ goals
59%
Dinamo Jug 3+ goals
32%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
60%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
23%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Jug (draw refunded)
79%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Jug at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Jug attack 2.47 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Dinamo Jug defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Jug scores more
62%
level
21%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
17%

Dinamo Jug at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Jug will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dinamo Jug 2–1 Radnički Svilajnac

Dinamo Jug beat Radnički Svilajnac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.