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Dinamo Helfort vs 1980 Wien — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Dinamo Helfort
Dinamo Helfort
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
1980 Wien
1980 Wien
11/2/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 12Sportplatz Helfort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dinamo Helfort58%
×Draw21%
1980 Wien21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Helfort
2.16
1980 Wien
1.24

Dinamo Helfort creates 74% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 47 away

creates per match

Dinamo Helfort
2.28
1980 Wien
1.40

allows per match

Dinamo Helfort
1.08
1980 Wien
2.04

finishing

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par
1980 Wien+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Helfort ↓

1980 Wien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dinamo Helfort or draw
79%
Dinamo Helfort or 1980 Wien
79%
Draw or 1980 Wien
42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+
36%
1980 Wien wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals
63%
Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals
36%
1980 Wien 1+ goals
71%
1980 Wien 2+ goals
35%
1980 Wien 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)
73%
1980 Wien (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Helfort at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

1980 Wien away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.28 + 1980 Wien defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.16

1980 Wien attack 1.40 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Helfort scores more
58%
level
21%
1980 Wien scores more
21%

Dinamo Helfort at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Helfort vs 1980 Wien

Dinamo Helfort beat 1980 Wien 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Helfort in Wien.