1980 Wien 0–2 Dinamo Helfort: Result & Stats

1980 Wien

FT

0 – 2

Dinamo Helfort

6/1/2024

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 27Franz Koci Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

1980 Wien37%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Helfort41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1980 WienExpected goals in this matchDinamo Helfort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.77

1980 Wien

1.67

Dinamo Helfort

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 61 away

2.17

creates per match

2.02

1.53

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

1980 Wien

2.17

Dinamo Helfort

2.02

allows per match

1980 Wien

1.53

Dinamo Helfort

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1980 Wien+0.00on par

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1980 Wien ↓

Dinamo Helfort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

1980 Wien or draw

59%

1980 Wien or Dinamo Helfort

77%

Draw or Dinamo Helfort

63%

Winning margin

1980 Wien wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

1980 Wien 1+ goals

81%

1980 Wien 2+ goals

50%

1980 Wien 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals

53%

Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

1980 Wien (draw refunded)

47%

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1980 Wien at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Dinamo Helfort away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1980 Wien attack 2.17 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.02 + 1980 Wien defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

1980 Wien scores more

37%

level

23%

Dinamo Helfort scores more

41%

Dinamo Helfort at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff