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Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Ciudad Vinotinto — Segunda División 2018

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
FT
0 – 1
Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
9/1/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 6Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz48%
×Draw29%
Ciudad Vinotinto23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.31
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.81

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 62% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.20
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.50

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.12
Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par
Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Ciudad Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw
77%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Ciudad Vinotinto
71%
Draw or Ciudad Vinotinto
52%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
23%
Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
14%
Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
56%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
19%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
68%
Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Ciudad Vinotinto away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.50 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
48%
level
29%
Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
23%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Ciudad Vinotinto

Ciudad Vinotinto beat Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1-0 in Segunda División on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani (Puerto la Cruz).