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Ciudad Vinotinto vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
FT
1 – 1
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
10/5/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ciudad Vinotinto33%
×Draw28%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.11
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
0.83
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.99

allows per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.40

finishing

Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Vinotinto ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ciudad Vinotinto or draw
62%
Ciudad Vinotinto or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
72%
Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
67%

Winning margin

Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
67%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
30%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
10%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
47%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Vinotinto at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.83 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
33%
level
28%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
38%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Vinotinto vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Ciudad Vinotinto and Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).