Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1–1 Atlético La Cruz

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético La Cruz

8/14/2024

Segunda División · Clausura - 3Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz39%

×Draw28%

Atlético La Cruz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo de Puerto La CruzExpected goals in this matchAtlético La Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.23

Atlético La Cruz

1.10

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 50 away

1.20

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.20

Atlético La Cruz

1.08

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.12

Atlético La Cruz

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Atlético La Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw

67%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Atlético La Cruz

72%

Draw or Atlético La Cruz

61%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

17%

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

13%

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals

67%

Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals

30%

Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

54%

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

39%

level

28%

Atlético La Cruz scores more

33%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff