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Atlético La Cruz vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Atlético La Cruz
Atlético La Cruz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
5/19/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atlético La Cruz48%
×Draw28%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético La Cruz
1.35
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.86

Atlético La Cruz creates 57% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 84 away

creates per match

Atlético La Cruz
1.31
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.99

allows per match

Atlético La Cruz
0.73
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.40

finishing

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético La Cruz ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético La Cruz or draw
76%
Atlético La Cruz or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
72%
Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
52%

Winning margin

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals
74%
Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals
39%
Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
58%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
21%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético La Cruz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.31 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Atlético La Cruz defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético La Cruz scores more
48%
level
28%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
24%

Atlético La Cruz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atlético La Cruz 0–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz beat Atlético La Cruz 2-0 in Segunda División on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini in Maturín.