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Dinamo Bryansk vs Volgar Astrakhan — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
Preview
15:00
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
8/29/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 7Dynamo Stadium
36%
Volgar Astrakhan
model favours
33%31%36%

Dinamo Bryansk are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%
×Draw31%
Volgar Astrakhan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
0.97
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Volgar Astrakhan
1.19

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Volgar Astrakhan
1.04

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
64%
Dinamo Bryansk or Volgar Astrakhan
69%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
12%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
25%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
7%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
65%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
28%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
47%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.19 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
33%
level
31%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
36%

Volgar Astrakhan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Volgar Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Volgar Astrakhan score first in only 27% of matches
  • Dinamo Bryansk score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Volgar Astrakhan’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bryansk
WDWWW
Astrakhan
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Bryansk host Volgar Astrakhan

August 29, 2026: Dinamo Bryansk take on Volgar Astrakhan in Second League A - Fall Season Gold. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Bryansk host Volgar Astrakhan at Dynamo Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.