Dinamo Bryansk 3–0 Strogino: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Strogino

N. Alekhin 74'

D. Konoplev 53'

A. Medvedev 13'

9/20/2025

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Dynamo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk60%

×Draw24%

Strogino16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchStrogino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.74

Dinamo Bryansk

1.69

Strogino

0.74

Dinamo Bryansk creates 128% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 92 away

1.74

creates per match

1.10

0.38

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.74

Strogino

1.10

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.38

Strogino

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Strogino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

84%

Dinamo Bryansk or Strogino

76%

Draw or Strogino

40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

34%

Strogino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

50%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

24%

Strogino 1+ goals

52%

Strogino 2+ goals

17%

Strogino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

79%

Strogino (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.38 · 47 matches

Strogino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.74 + Strogino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Strogino attack 1.10 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

60%

level

24%

Strogino scores more

16%

Dinamo Bryansk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

17'

51'

53'

57'

K. Volovich← A. Medvedev

57'

A. Novikov← A. Medvedev

67'

V. Manukyan← V. Saushkin

67'

M. Mikaelyan← K. Krol

72'

V. Timchenko← I. Solovjev

72'

A. Avvakumov← D. Konoplev

74'

N. Alekhin

78'

A. Alekseenkov← S. Guzyuk

78'

E. Ganeev← A. Solovjev

81'

N. Mankov

81'

A. Alimkhanov← V. Drogunov

90+2'

T. Akmurzin

90+3'

K. Shoronov

Dinamo

Strogino

1

3

13

33

17

▼

Solovjev

79

Shoronov

8

▼

Saushkin

4

Chekhlov

7

Khuranov

19

▼

Krol

11

▼

Guzyuk

1

Akmurzin

6

⚽

Alekhin

5

Gruzhevsk

10

▼

Drogunov

3

Mankov

21

Rapakov

25

▼

Medvedev

12

⚽

▼

Medvedev

9

▼

Solovjev

18

Shalaev

11

⚽

▼

Konoplev

Manager: A. Kanchelskis

57'▲K. Volovich←▼A. Medvedev

57'▲A. Novikov←▼A. Medvedev

72'▲V. Timchenko←▼I. Solovjev

72'▲A. Avvakumov←▼D. Konoplev

81'▲A. Alimkhanov←▼V. Drogunov

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

13Ermakov4Osokin27Alimkhanov17Volovich15Novikov26Timchenko19Yamangulov31Avvakumov8Sidorenko

Manager: S. Zagidullin

67'▲V. Manukyan←▼V. Saushkin

67'▲M. Mikaelyan←▼K. Krol

78'▲A. Alekseenkov←▼S. Guzyuk

78'▲E. Ganeev←▼A. Solovjev

Strogino substitutes

31Dragan66Tarnolitskiy97Alekseenkov34Ganeev26Manukyan9Mikaelyan

Second League - Group 3: Dinamo Bryansk 3–0 Strogino

Dinamo Bryansk beat Strogino 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Medvedev (13'), D. Konoplev (53'), N. Alekhin (74').

The match was played at Dynamo Stadium in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Strogino — Second League - Group 3 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 3: Dinamo Bryansk 3–0 Strogino