Dinamo Bryansk 3–1 Strogino: Result & Stats | Cup

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Strogino

A. Olenev 86'

D. Lopatin 55', 1'

V. Agalakov 33'

9/14/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk34%

×Draw24%

Strogino41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchStrogino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.59

Dinamo Bryansk

1.43

Strogino

1.59

Strogino creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

0.86

creates per match

0.75

2.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.86

Strogino

0.75

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

2.43

Strogino

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Strogino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

59%

Dinamo Bryansk or Strogino

76%

Draw or Strogino

66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

16%

Strogino wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

17%

Strogino 1+ goals

80%

Strogino 2+ goals

47%

Strogino 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

45%

Strogino (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Strogino away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.86 + Strogino defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Strogino attack 0.75 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

34%

level

24%

Strogino scores more

41%

Strogino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Strogino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Lopatin

33'

V. Agalakov

46'

M. Novikov← V. Olenchenko

55'

D. Lopatin

63'

D. Pikatov← V. Drogunov

63'

A. Olenev← D. Lopatin

69'

G. Markholia← D. Valter

69'

A. Kirakosyan← V. Agalakov

72'

A. Medvedev← M. Kazimir

86'

A. Olenev

90+2'

D. Fomichev← A. Novikov

Dinamo

Strogino

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Lopatin

Manager: A. Fomichev

46'▲M. Novikov←▼V. Olenchenko

63'▲D. Pikatov←▼V. Drogunov

63'▲A. Olenev←▼D. Lopatin

72'▲A. Medvedev←▼M. Kazimir

90+2'▲D. Fomichev←▼A. Novikov

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

NovikovPikatovOlenevMedvedevFomichev

Manager: S. Zagidullin

69'▲G. Markholia←▼D. Valter

69'▲A. Kirakosyan←▼V. Agalakov

Strogino substitutes

MarkholiaKirakosyan

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Strogino

Dinamo Bryansk beat Strogino 3-1 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

Goals: D. Lopatin (1', 55'), V. Agalakov (33'), A. Olenev (86').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Strogino — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Strogino