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Dinamo Bryansk vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
Preview
16:00
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
11/14/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 18Dynamo Stadium
36%
Mashuk-KMV
model favours
33%31%36%

Dinamo Bryansk are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%
×Draw31%
Mashuk-KMV36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
0.98
Mashuk-KMV
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Mashuk-KMV
1.17

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Mashuk-KMV
1.06

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
64%
Dinamo Bryansk or Mashuk-KMV
69%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
12%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
62%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
64%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
28%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
48%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.17 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
33%
level
31%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
36%

Mashuk-KMV at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Bryansk score first in only 27% of matches
  • Mashuk-KMV score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bryansk
WDWWW
Mashuk-KMV
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Bryansk vs Mashuk-KMV — Match Preview

Dinamo Bryansk face Mashuk-KMV on November 14, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Gold fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Bryansk host Mashuk-KMV at Dynamo Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.