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Dinamo Bryansk vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
Preview
15:00
Kaluga
Kaluga
10/17/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 14Dynamo Stadium
Big match
45%
Dinamo Bryansk
model favours
45%29%26%

Dinamo Bryansk are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk45%
×Draw29%
Kaluga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.23
Kaluga
0.86

Dinamo Bryansk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Kaluga
0.83

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Kaluga
1.56

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
74%
Dinamo Bryansk or Kaluga
71%
Draw or Kaluga
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
20%
Kaluga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
13%
Kaluga 1+ goals
58%
Kaluga 2+ goals
21%
Kaluga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
63%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kaluga attack 0.83 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
45%
level
29%
Kaluga scores more
26%

Dinamo Bryansk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Bryansk score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bryansk
WDWWW
Kaluga
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Bryansk host Kaluga

October 17, 2026: Dinamo Bryansk take on Kaluga in Second League A - Fall Season Gold. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Bryansk host Kaluga at Dynamo Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.