Dinamo Bryansk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

P. Baranov 90+2'

I. Molteninov 62', 54'

11/25/2020

First League · Round 24Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%

×Draw28%

Chertanovo Moscow39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Dinamo Bryansk

1.13

Chertanovo Moscow

1.25

Chertanovo Moscow creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

0.71

creates per match

1.21

1.29

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

61%

Dinamo Bryansk or Chertanovo Moscow

72%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

13%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

31%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

11%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

71%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

36%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

46%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

33%

level

28%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

39%

Chertanovo Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

23'

26'

35'

54'

60'

Y. Pershin← V. Drogunov

61'

A. Ukomskiy← S. Karetnik

62'

I. Molteninov

74'

Pavel Baranov

81'

D. Molchanov← S. Pinyaev

82'

G. Levin← A. Nadolskiy

89'

Ilya Abaev

90+2'

A. Sokolov← N. Suleymanov

90+2'

P. Baranov

Dinamo5-4-1

Chertanovo4-1-3-2

17

▼

Pinyaev

6

▼

Suleymano

28

⚽2

68

31

7

66

93

19

▼

13

81

1

44

5

21

12

39

8

⚽

Baranov

9

Maraev

10

▼

Drogunov

31

▼

Karetnik

45

Votinov

Manager: A. Gorbachev

60'▲Y. Pershin←▼V. Drogunov

61'▲A. Ukomskiy←▼S. Karetnik

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

33Pershin91Ukomskiy3Luppa14Sorokin15Novikov17Agureev20Pikatov23Shebanov30Pazin88Tsiberkin95Vambolt

Manager: A. Dmitriev

81'▲D. Molchanov←▼S. Pinyaev

82'▲G. Levin←▼A. Nadolskiy

90+2'▲A. Sokolov←▼N. Suleymanov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

11Molchanov70Levin8Sokolov9Kanishchev55Radionov

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Dinamo Bryansk 2-1 in First League on November 25, 2020.

Goals: I. Molteninov (54', 62'), P. Baranov (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow