Chertanovo Moscow 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Bryansk

M. Votinov 18'

8/16/2020

First League · Round 4Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow52%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Bryansk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.91

Chertanovo Moscow

1.54

Dinamo Bryansk

0.91

Chertanovo Moscow creates 69% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 21 away

1.37

creates per match

0.48

1.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

Dinamo Bryansk

0.48

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.33

Dinamo Bryansk

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

78%

Chertanovo Moscow or Dinamo Bryansk

74%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

48%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

79%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

45%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

60%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

23%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

70%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.37 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

52%

level

26%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

22%

Chertanovo Moscow at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. Votinov

39'

Vladimir Bartasevich

45'

Andrei Lukanchenkov

46'

S. Pinyaev← I. Molteninov

58'

Y. Pershin← V. Drogunov

59'

I. Kamyshev← N. Suleymanov

65'

A. Nadolskiy← N. Pershin

66'

Egor Kondakov

68'

A. Ukomskiy← G. Chirkin

75'

V. Sorokin← P. Baranov

80'

M. Saveljev← L. Gerchikov

82'

Dmitri Molchanov

84'

D. Pikatov← N. Maraev

87'

D. Molodnyakov← Y. Zavezen

Chertanovo4-2-3-1

Dinamo4-2-3-1

45

⚽

Votinov

8

▼

Baranov

9

▼

Maraev

10

▼

Drogunov

86

▼

26

21

12

39

7

1

55

63

4

3

13

68

▼

Gerchikov

31

▼

Zavezen

11

Molchanov

28

▼

Moltenino

46

▼

Pershin

6

▼

Suleymano

Manager: A. Dmitriev

46'▲S. Pinyaev←▼I. Molteninov

59'▲I. Kamyshev←▼N. Suleymanov

65'▲A. Nadolskiy←▼N. Pershin

80'▲M. Saveljev←▼L. Gerchikov

87'▲D. Molodnyakov←▼Y. Zavezen

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

17Pinyaev5Kamyshev19Nadolskiy14Saveljev93Molodnyakov16Yavorskiy30Lyakhov66Gudkov

Manager: A. Gorbachev

58'▲Y. Pershin←▼V. Drogunov

68'▲A. Ukomskiy←▼G. Chirkin

75'▲V. Sorokin←▼P. Baranov

84'▲D. Pikatov←▼N. Maraev

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

33Pershin91Ukomskiy14Sorokin20Pikatov3Luppa17Agureev95Vambolt

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk

Dinamo Bryansk beat Chertanovo Moscow 1-0 in First League on August 16, 2020.

Goals: M. Votinov (18').

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.

Chertanovo Moscow vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk