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Dinamo Brest vs Ruh Brest — Coppa 2019

Dinamo Brest
Dinamo Brestadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
8/8/2021CoppaCoppa · Round of 16Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo Brest36%
×Draw27%
Ruh Brest36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Brest
1.25
Ruh Brest
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dinamo Brest
1.50
Ruh Brest
2.00

allows per match

Dinamo Brest
0.50
Ruh Brest
1.00

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw
64%
Dinamo Brest or Ruh Brest
73%
Draw or Ruh Brest
64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+
16%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Brest 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Brest 3+ goals
13%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
71%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
36%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)
50%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.50 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ruh Brest attack 2.00 + Dinamo Brest defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more
36%
level
27%
Ruh Brest scores more
36%

Dinamo Brest at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Brest vs Ruh Brest

Dinamo Brest beat Ruh Brest 2-0 in Coppa on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski in Brest.