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Dinamo Brest vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Brest
Dinamo Brest
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
10/18/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dinamo Brest38%
×Draw24%
Ruh Brest37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Brest
1.50
Ruh Brest
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dinamo Brest
1.83
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

Dinamo Brest
1.18
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw
63%
Dinamo Brest or Ruh Brest
76%
Draw or Ruh Brest
62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+
18%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Brest 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Brest 3+ goals
19%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
77%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
43%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)
51%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.83 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more
38%
level
24%
Ruh Brest scores more
37%

Dinamo Brest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dinamo Brest 5–2 Ruh Brest

Dinamo Brest beat Ruh Brest 5-2 in Premier League on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski in Brest.