Dinamo Brest 0–2 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats | Coppa

Dinamo Brest

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ML Vitebsk

3/8/2026

Coppa · Quarter-finalsRegional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Brest20%

×Draw20%

ML Vitebsk60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BrestExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.25

Dinamo Brest

1.25

ML Vitebsk

2.25

ML Vitebsk creates 80% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

4.00

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dinamo Brest

1.50

ML Vitebsk

4.00

allows per match

Dinamo Brest

0.50

ML Vitebsk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw

40%

Dinamo Brest or ML Vitebsk

80%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

80%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

8%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

13%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

89%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

65%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

26%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.50 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

ML Vitebsk attack 4.00 + Dinamo Brest defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more

20%

level

20%

ML Vitebsk scores more

60%

ML Vitebsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff