Dinamo Brest 0–2 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats

Dinamo Brest

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ML Vitebsk

4/4/2025

Premier League · Round 3Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Brest32%

×Draw25%

ML Vitebsk43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BrestExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.55

Dinamo Brest

1.29

ML Vitebsk

1.55

ML Vitebsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 24 away

1.83

creates per match

1.92

1.18

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Dinamo Brest

1.83

ML Vitebsk

1.92

allows per match

Dinamo Brest

1.18

ML Vitebsk

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw

57%

Dinamo Brest or ML Vitebsk

75%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

68%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

14%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

14%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

79%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

46%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

42%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.83 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more

32%

level

25%

ML Vitebsk scores more

43%

ML Vitebsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff