Dinamo Brest 3–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Dinamo Brest

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Arsenal

A. Mikhalenko 62' (OG)

I. Zenkov 34'

M. Gordeychuk 26'

Unknown 85'

2/7/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbol'nyy Manezh Botsor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Brest62%

×Draw20%

Arsenal17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BrestExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.00

Dinamo Brest

2.10

Arsenal

1.00

Dinamo Brest creates 110% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.11

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Dinamo Brest

2.11

Arsenal

1.10

allows per match

Dinamo Brest

0.89

Arsenal

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw

83%

Dinamo Brest or Arsenal

80%

Draw or Arsenal

38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

39%

Arsenal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

35%

Arsenal 1+ goals

63%

Arsenal 2+ goals

26%

Arsenal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

78%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 2.11 + Arsenal defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.10

Arsenal attack 1.10 + Dinamo Brest defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more

62%

level

20%

Arsenal scores more

17%

Dinamo Brest at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Gordeychuk

34'

I. Zenkov

62'

A. MikhalenkoOwn goal

85'

Dinamo

Arsenal

Manager: Aleksandr Sednev

Manager: V. Vashkevich