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Arsenal vs Dinamo Brest — Premier League 2018

Arsenal
Arsenal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Brest
Dinamo Brest
Y. Lovets 24'
M. Gordeychuk 11'
3/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Haradski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Arsenal31%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Brest42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
1.06
Dinamo Brest
1.29

Dinamo Brest creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 129 away

creates per match

Arsenal
0.94
Dinamo Brest
1.36

allows per match

Arsenal
1.23
Dinamo Brest
1.18

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Dinamo Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
58%
Arsenal or Dinamo Brest
72%
Draw or Dinamo Brest
69%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Brest wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal 2+ goals
29%
Arsenal 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Brest 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Brest 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Brest 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Dinamo Brest away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 0.94 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dinamo Brest attack 1.36 + Arsenal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arsenal scores more
31%
level
28%
Dinamo Brest scores more
42%

Dinamo Brest at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Gordeychuk↳ E. Kortsov
24'
Y. Lovets↳ A. Frantsuzov
46'
I. Zenkov← A. Rylach
46'
V. Vasiljev← M. Kasarab
59'
D. Kovalevich← A. Shramchenko
75'
I. Konovalov← N. Burak
76'
G. Yakushevich← K. Kirilenko
76'
M. Mikhayrin← J. Oreshkevich
76'
A. Ishutin← V. Senko
82'
Aleksandr Frantsuzov
83'
D. Laptev← M. Gordeychuk
88'
S. Irgashev← Y. Lovets
88'
D. Matyash← A. Frantsuzov

Statistics

ArsenalDinamo
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Premier League: Arsenal 1–1 Dinamo Brest

Arsenal and Dinamo Brest drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Gordeychuk (11'), Y. Lovets (24').

The match was played at Haradski Stadium in Barysaw.