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Dinamo Batumi vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
12/10/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 26Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dinamo Batumi54%
×Draw24%
Chikhura Sachkhere22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Batumi
1.75
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.02

Dinamo Batumi creates 72% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.93
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.93

allows per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.10
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.57

finishing

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Batumi ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Batumi or draw
78%
Dinamo Batumi or Chikhura Sachkhere
76%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
46%

Winning margin

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
30%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
25%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
64%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
27%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
71%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Batumi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.93 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dinamo Batumi scores more
54%
level
24%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
22%

Dinamo Batumi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Batumi 0–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Dinamo Batumi and Chikhura Sachkhere drew 0-0 in Erovnuli Liga on December 10, 2020.

The match was played at Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza in Batumi.